Sweddknowlege plateforme 20 août, 2026

Draft de Policy synthèse DDMI de la Gambie

Introduction :
The demographic dividend is an opportunity for economic growth and sustainable development that stems from changes in the age structure of the population. A larger labor force, if well employed, can allow a country to increase its GDP and income, but it requires adequate support. With the right policies and investments in health, education and the economy, the growing young population is therefore seen as one of the potential drivers of socio-economic development and transformation of The Gambia.
Recently, The Gambia established a National Demographic Dividend Observatory (NDRO) with technical and financial support from the UNFPA Country Office and the World Bank through the SWEDD project. As part of the African Union's recommendations, the Demographic Dividend Observatory is a tool for monitoring information, evaluating and guiding public policies. This observatory tracks the process of capturing the demographic dividend across five (05) dimensions related to the four (04) pillars of the African Union on the demographic dividend, adapted to the seven pillars of The Gambia's NDP for the period 2023-2027.
Le
present

policy
Brief apporte des informations relatives à l’indice de suivi du dividende démographique de la Gambie. Son objectif général est de mettre en évidence les progrès de la Gambie dans la capture du Dividende Démographique afin d’appuyer le plaidoyer, la planification et l’orientation des politiques publiques à court, moyen et long terme.
Socio-Economic Status and Development Challenges in The Gambia
The Gambia, one of the smallest and most densely populated countries in West Africa, has a population of about 2.4 million, divided between urban (53%) and rural (47%). With an annual population growth rate of 2.9%, the population is young, with 42% under the age of 15, 23.4% between 10 and 19, and 21.4% between 15 and 24.
The country has seen its maternal mortality ratio decrease from 433 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2013 to 289 in 2019/2020. However, infant mortality increased slightly, from 54 to 56 deaths per 1,000 live births over the same period.
In terms of education, about 56 per cent of children in rural areas attain a primary education qualification, compared with 35.6 per cent in urban areas, with a net primary school enrolment rate of 60.6 per cent.
Of
those

registered
, 56.7% are boys and 64.5% are girls.
The Gambia's ranking in the Human Development Index (HDI) remains low, fluctuating between 173rd and 174th place in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated economic challenges, with GDP growth rates of 4.3% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022.
In 2021, 41.7% of the population lived in multidimensional poverty, while 28% were vulnerable to multidimensional poverty. The number of poor people increased from 0.79 million in 2010 to 0.94 million in 2015/16.
The Gambia's Human Capital Index (ICH) in 2020 was 42.4%, indicating that a child born in that year will only be productive at 42.4% of its optimal potential. Overall, human capital development is estimated at 62.9 per cent, with notable improvements in education (55.6 per
cent), standard of living (65.6 per cent), and health (68.3 per cent), reflecting improvements in the quality of the workforce and human capital.
The indicators proposed by the Consortium for Research in Generational Economics (CREG) meet this requirement through the Demographic Dividend Monitoring Index (DDMI). This index is built around five main indicators from the following fundamental dimensions:
Dimension 1: E
conomic dependence coverage
Dimension 2: Quality
of
living
environment
Dimension 3:
Poverty D
ynamics
Dimension 4: Expanded Human Development
Dimension
5:
Networks and
Territory
Dimension 1 : ECONOMIC DEPENDENCE COVERAGE
Gender Economic Disparities and Dependency Coverage Index in The Gambia
The Economic Dependency Coverage Index (CEDI) measures the proportion of deficits in economically dependent age groups that is covered by the surplus income generated by economically productive age groups. In 2020, The Gambia recorded an economic surplus of GMD 4,758.19 million and a deficit of GMD 42,304.72 million, which led to an overall economic dependency coverage of 11%.
Men had a 29% higher dependency coverage index, due to an income surplus of GMD 5,138.48 million, enough to cover a significant share of their consumption expenditure. In contrast, women showed a much lower coverage of 2%, with an income surplus of GMD 562.24 million, which only covers 2% of their consumer expenditure. These disparities highlight the economic differences between the sexes in The Gambia.
Table 1: Economic Dependency
Covarage
Indicator (EDCI)
Gambia
Male
Female
Deficit of Dependents (M of GMD)
42,304.72
17,535.12
25,712.14
Surplus of Non Dependents (M of GMD)
4,758.19
5,138.48
562.24
LCD (M of GMD)
37,546.54
12,396.64
25,149.90
EDCI
11%
29%
2%
The life cycle deficit in The Gambia amounts to GMD 37,546.54 million, divided between GMD 12,963.64 million for men and GMD 25,149.90 million for women. This situation is explained by the previous analysis which showed that Gambian women remain mostly dependent throughout their life cycle, except between the ages of 32 and 40. In contrast, men cover their consumption expenses with their income from work between the ages of 25 and 60.
The table presents the Economic Dependency Coverage Index (EDI) for The Gambia and its eight Local Government Areas. The country's overall CESI is 11%. Among the regions,
Brikama
has the highest CEDI at 29%, followed by
Kerewan
at 22%,
Kanifing
at 10%,
Kuntaur
at 5%,
Janjanbureh
and
Mansakonko
at 3% each, Basse at 1%, and finally Banjul with a CESI of 0%.
Figure 1: Economic Dependency Coverage Indicator by LGA
In general, The Gambia has a high consumption in relation to its
labour
income. In 2020, total consumption amounted to GMD 83,073 million, while labor income reached GMD 45,526 million. The 0% coverage rate recorded in Banjul is explained by the fact that consumption in this city exceeds its
labour
income, thus leaving no surplus.
Brikama's
high ICDE is linked to consumption of 26,979 million GMD, compared to labor income of 18,004 million GMD. This high CESI means that the surplus generated by the non-dependent population covers a significant part of the deficit of the dependent population. The differences between the low and high CESI observed in Banjul and
Brikama
can be attributed to the peculiarities of the living and working environments in each region.
Banjul, as the capital and business center, has a limited residential population, and economic activities are mainly conducted by the government and businessmen, who leave the city at the end of each working day. Conversely,
Brikama
, with a larger population, also serves as a trading center for nearby villages, attracting farmers who come here to sell their products on market days.
Dimension 2:  QUALITY OF LIVING ENVIRONMENT
Quality of the Living Environment in The Gambia: Analysis and Key Indicators
The quality of the living environment refers to the conditions and factors that influence the well-being, comfort and safety of the inhabitants of a place. It encompasses various elements
affecting the daily life and overall satisfaction of individuals. It is a multidimensional notion that highlights several disciplines of the social sciences, such as economics (especially subjective economics), geography and environmental studies. These disciplines collectively contribute to the improvement of people's living conditions. In the context of the demographic dividend, the quality of the living environment plays a critical role in activating human potential and promoting personal development.
Figure 2 : Indice de Qualité de l'Environnement de Vie (QLEI) en Gambie
Source: Gambia’s Team/CREG, 2023
The Quality of the Living Environment Index (QLEI) in The Gambia is 60%, which is considered acceptable. However, there are significant variations between the different subcategories:
Work-life balance: With a 77% satisfaction rate, Gambians generally manage to balance their work hours and personal time well. Civil servants work about 40 to 45 hours a week, allowing sufficient time for leisure. The significant proportion of household income from external sources reduces the need for intensive work. Adherence to ILO standards on personal time also contributes to this good balance.
Civic participation: The satisfaction index is 64%, reflecting the government's efforts to ensure citizen participation in the development of laws and regulations. More than half of voters typically participate in elections, which is encouraging, but more strategies are needed to improve inclusivity.
Housing: The housing index scored 63% overall, mainly influenced by the number of people per room and the availability of essential sanitation facilities. However, housing affordability remains a major challenge, especially in urban areas. Housing plans need to be developed to ease this burden, especially for civil servants,
in order to
reduce costs and overcrowding.
Security: With a rating of 59%, the security in The Gambia is rated as average and acceptable. Just over half of those surveyed feel safe walking alone on the streets, and the homicide rate is low at 9.1 per 100,000 residents in 2015. However, it is crucial to modernize law enforcement
and strengthen security in high-risk areas, while addressing new challenges like cybercrime and money laundering.
Social support: The social support index is relatively low at 42%, indicating that 42 in 100 people have a limited support network. This is exacerbated by the increase in the poverty rate, from 48.7% in 2015 to 53.4% in 2020. The diminishing spirit of "Teranga" (mutual aid and reciprocity) and the impact of poverty show the need for the government to develop strategies to improve social support, such as safety nets.
Environmental Conditions: The Environmental Conditions Index is 47%, below the target threshold of 50%. Key challenges include air pollution and limited access to clean water. The concentration of PM2.5 particles in the air is 34 micrograms per cubic meter, well above the World Health Organization's (WHO) recommended average of 10 micrograms. This is partly due to the effects of sandstorms in this Sahelian region. Waste management is also problematic, directly affecting public health and threatening future development prospects.
Assessing the Quality of the Living Environment in The Gambia: Gender-Based Analysis and the Impact of Socio-Economic Factors
Figure 2. QLEI by
Gender
Source: Gambia’s Team/CREG, 2023
The results show that The Gambia scored well in four subcategories of the Quality of the Living Environment Index (QLEI): subjective well-being, civic engagement, housing, and work-life balance, for both sexes. Women have a remarkable score of 75%, slightly higher than men, likely due to the financial stability they can achieve by working to support their families, which improves their living conditions and subjective well-being. Their perception of work-life balance is also better, with a high score, which may be explained by the fact that men often work late in high-intensity settings, leaving women more time to take care of family responsibilities
.
Cultural norms, which require men to provide for the family, may also limit their time for self-care. In terms of housing, women score 65%, slightly higher than men (63%),
which could be explained by the improvement in housing conditions resulting from women's financial stability, and therefore a better quality of life.
The crime rate in The Gambia is relatively low, at 9.1 homicides per 100,000 population. However, increasing urbanization appears to increase the incidence of crime due to security breaches. Women generally feel safer at night, with a score of 71%, while men, feeling less safe, may be victims of criminal assaults more often. The overall civic engagement index is 64% for both sexes, reflecting a good level of citizen participation in the development of laws and regulations, supported by government initiatives to encourage such participation.
Scores on the Social Support Index are low for both sexes, at 44% for men and 32% for women. The slightly higher score for men could indicate a wider support network, despite rising poverty and the decline of traditional social ties like "Teranga". Finally, the environmental score is 47% for both sexes, due to challenges related to pollution and limited access to basic services, such as clean water.
Dimension 3 : POVERTY DYNAMICS
Analysis of Poverty Dynamics in The Gambia: Transitions and Determinants between 2015 and 2020
The analysis of poverty dynamics aims to assess the movements in and out of poverty within the different transitions, while identifying the factors that influence this mobility. The studies were conducted at the regional level, drawing on survey data from the Gambia Bureau of Statistics (
GBoS
). This composite index quantifies the levels of transition into poverty among the population, distinguishing between four categories: the chronic poor (PP), the newly poor (NPP), the new poor (NPP), and the non-poor (NPNP).
Figure 3 shows the transition of individuals into poverty in The Gambia between 2015 and 2020, divided into four groups according to their poverty status during this period:
Figure 3: Transition in Poverty at national Level
Source:
IHS 2015/2016 by GBOS
Chronic poverty (individuals who were poor in 2015 and remained poor in 2020): This group represents 40.73% of the population studied, including those who were already in poverty in 2015 and remained in poverty in 2020.
Entry into poverty (individuals who were not poor in 2015 but became poor in 2020): This group represents 12.7% of the population, i.e. those whose economic situation has deteriorated, leading them to enter poverty by 2020.
Exit from poverty (individuals who were poor in 2015 but became non-poor in 2020): This category includes 7.91% of the population, including those who have managed to improve their economic condition and exit poverty by 2020.
Non-poor in both periods (non-poor individuals in 2015 and 2020): This group represents 38.66% of the population, corresponding to those whose financial situation has remained stable during this period, thus supporting the Gambian economy.
Overall, these data indicate a net increase in the number of people living in poverty during this period, with more people entering poverty than people succeeding in escaping it. If this trend continues, The Gambia could face an erosion of the NPNP group that supports its economy.
The factors contributing to this trend in The Gambia are multiple, highlighting the need for policies or interventions to stem this increase in poverty. At the microeconomic level, the Gambian economy's heavy dependence on remittances, in addition to household consumption, particularly food, is a determining factor. The year 2020, marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, saw many Gambian migrants abroad lose their jobs, reducing financial assistance to their families. At the macroeconomic level, The Gambia has experienced high inflation, with a rate exceeding double digits, and a depreciation of its national currency against foreign currencies. These developments have exacerbated the living conditions of households, leading to an increase of more than 30% in the cost of living between the two periods.
Figure 3.3 above provides an analysis of the transition to poverty in The Gambia between the years 2015 and 2020, disaggregated by gender.
Figure 4
: Transition in Poverty by Gender
Source: IHS 2015/2016 by GBOS
Analysis of Chronic Poverty and Economic Transitions by Gender in The Gambia (2015-2020)
Regarding chronic poverty, 39.69% of male heads of household and 16.26% of female heads of household were in poverty in 2015 and remained so in 2020. This indicates that men were more likely to experience persistent poverty over this five-year period.
In terms of individuals who fell into poverty, 17.41% of men and 16.85% of women who were not poor in 2015 became poor in 2020. With regard to exiting poverty, 11.85 per cent of men improved their economic situation and escaped poverty during the study period, compared to 16.33 per cent of women who made the same transition. These figures indicate that a higher proportion of women compared to men managed to get out of poverty between 2015 and 2020.
Finally, 31.05% of men maintained their non-poor status, while a higher proportion, 50.56% of women, managed to maintain financial stability during this period. This suggests that women have, overall, enjoyed greater economic stability than men during this period.
Dimension 4:  
EXTENDED HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
The Expanded Human Development Index (HDDI) assesses the level of human development of a locality by integrating the sustainability and optimality of human resources. Based on the Human Development Index (HDI) methodology developed by the United Nations Development
Programme
(UNDP), the HDI takes into account three fundamental dimensions: health, education and standard of living. The main innovation lies in the integration of the Total
Fertility Rate (TFR) to assess the optimality of the population needed to support continued economic growth, as well as the use of per capita consumption rather than GDP per capita,
in order to
better reflect the standard of living and well-being of individuals.
Figure 5 illustrates the average scores for the three dimensions of expanded human capital.
Figure 5: Extended Human Development Index (EHDI)
Source: CREG 2023
In The Gambia, the overall development of human capital is estimated at 62.9 per cent, indicating an average level of human capacity development in the country. The sub-indices show significant progress: education reaches 55.6%, the standard of living is 65.6%, and health scores 68.3%. These results indicate that about 62% of the Gambian population benefits from improvements in skills and knowledge, revealing a positive trend in the quality of the workforce and human capital.
It is essential that The Gambia continue its efforts to sustain these gains and develop policies to strengthen successes in the three dimensions of expanded human capital. A more detailed analysis shows that the health indicator has the highest score of 68.3%, reflecting improvements in fertility rates and life expectancy. The standard of living, on the other hand, is estimated at 65.6%, indicating an average standard of living for the population. Education has an average index of 55.6%, based on the expected duration of schooling and the average duration of schooling of adults aged 25 and over, suggesting progress in education, training and higher education policies.
Gender analysis in EHDI
The graph illustrates the Expanded Human Development Index (HDDI) by gender. The overall human capital index is 63.0 per cent at the national level, with no significant differences between men and women, with an average index of 62.9 per cent, which is relatively positive. Men enjoy higher standards of living than women, with a life expectancy of 63.50 years compared to 60.60 years for women. However, in terms of education, the differences are minimal: the expected duration of schooling is 10.3 years for men and 9.4 years for women, while the average duration of schooling is almost identical, at 7.14 years for men and 6.72 years for women.
Figure
6 :
EHDI by Gender
Source:
CREG 2023
Figure 6 also shows that the health score is higher among males (69.4%) compared to females (67.1%), both surpassing the national average of 68.3%. This difference could be due to a higher life expectancy in men. In education, women have a slight advantage at 56.0%, compared to 55.0% for men. Finally, the differences in living standards between the sexes are minimal, with women having slightly higher standards (65.9%) compared to men (65.4%), while the national average standard of living is 65.6%.
Dimension 5:  NETWORKS AND TERRITORIES
Analysis of the Synthetic Index of Networks and Territories (ISRT): Mobility and Infrastructure Assessment
The Synthetic Index of Networks and Territories (SRRT) assesses territorial mobility by examining the attractiveness of areas, human migration, financial and goods flows, as well as
the distribution of infrastructure at the national level. The ISRT is composed of four sub-dimensions: urbanization, migration, infrastructure and financial flows.
The results of the ISRT reveal the state of the structure and the level of integration of a territory in terms of migration and flows. The high or low levels of these indicators reflect the impact of the state of the structure and the degree of interaction. Among the sub-dimensions, all are below average, with the exception of infrastructure, which scores 79%.
Figure
7 :

NTSI AND COMPONENTS
Source: CREG 2023
At the national level, The Gambia has an average (good) level of basic infrastructure with an overall index of 0.792 (79%). This improvement in infrastructure can be mainly attributed to the performance of its indicators or components, with 73% for access to basic services and an incredible 86% for the quality of basic social services.
The basic infrastructure for men is 0.777, while for women it is 0.810. In terms of access to basic social services, men have an index of 0.720 compared to an index of 0.783 for women. Regarding the quality of basic social services, the indices are 0.838 for men and 0.838 for women. This indicates that women enjoy better basic infrastructure and better access to basic social services than men in The Gambia.
At the national level, urbanization in The Gambia is not sufficient to harness the demographic dividend. The urbanization index at the national level is 0.381 (38 per cent), which clearly reflects the low occupation of the country's territory, with a population density index of 0.28 (28 per cent) and a relatively low household size index of 0.326 (33 per cent). In addition, there
is a high concentration of people in households due to the low diversification of housing, with a renter-to-owner ratio of 0.399 (40%). The findings suggest that policymakers need to promote the creation of real estate states, subsidize building materials, support social housing, and reduce rent prices.
Urbanization in terms of gender shows that both men and women have a below-average urbanization index (50%). Males have an index of 0.384, while females have an index of 0.398. In terms of population index, men and women register 0.291 and 0.319 respectively. On the other hand, the urbanization rate for both men and women is above average (50 per cent), with indices of 0.542 for men and 0.775 for women. In terms of the ratio of renters to owners, men and women have indices of 0.398 (40%) and 0.403 (40%) respectively. The results indicate that there is evidence of low urbanization by gender across all urbanization indicators, except for the urbanization rate, where both men and women are above the average level (50%).
Migration is usually the result of the centralization of economic activities in one or a few territories, which encourages people to migrate to these regions in search of better opportunities. The national migration index is 0.258 (26%). In terms of migrant inflows and outflows at the national level, the inflows index is 0.141 and the outflows index is 0.117 (12 per cent). The results show that migration (inflows and outflows) at the national level is below the average level (50%). The national inflow and outflow indices in The Gambia show that the country remains a land of emigration.
The migration index for men and women is 0.282 (28%) and 0.237 (24%), respectively. This low index is due to the equally low entry and exit indices for both sexes in The Gambia. The entry and exit indices for males and females are 0.143 (14%) and 0.139 (14%) respectively.
At the national level, financial and capacity flows are at a relatively low level (18%). This low level can be mainly attributed to the insufficient performance of its various indicators. Among these indicators, the transfer index shows the best performance, reaching 65%, followed by the rate of access to formal transfer services, which is 33%. On the other hand, the income index and the basket cost index show very low levels of performance, recording 9% and 5% respectively.
In terms of financial and capacity flows by gender, men have relatively higher levels of performance at 22%, compared to 11% for women. Men and women share the same 5% index for the cost of the basket indicator. However, men outperform women in all other indicators of financial flows and capabilities. For the Transfer Index, men score a perfect 100%, while women score significantly lower by 14%. Men also have a higher rate of access to formal transfer services, at 38%, compared to 28% for women. In terms of income index, men and women score 11% and 7%, respectively, while they both score the same 5% on the basket cost index.
Conclusion and Recommendation
This Policy Brief provides information on the Demographic Dividend Monitoring Index in The Gambia. Its objective was to highlight the country's progress in capturing the Demographic Dividend, and to support advocacy, planning and public policy development efforts in the short,
medium, and long term. The Gambia has made significant progress in several dimensions of broader human development, but further efforts are needed to consolidate these gains and address persistent challenges. The quality of life is improving, but regional and sectoral disparities remain, requiring special attention in future policies.
Recommendations
-The government must accelerate the implementation of its employment policy and achieve the target of creating 150,000 jobs by the end of the policy period.
-Encourage economic diversification in rural areas to reduce migration to urban centers, developing programs that provide employment and income opportunities for rural communities.
-Strengthen and support programs that improve women's reproductive health to better meet maternal and child health needs.
-Prioritize health interventions in areas with a health index between 40% and 60%, to reduce health disparities.
– Accelerate the establishment of the anti-corruption commission to reduce revenue leakage for development.
-Promote the decentralization of public services in order to reduce the pressure on urban centers and improve living conditions in rural areas.
– The government must promote the decentralization of basic infrastructure to encourage urbanization throughout the country through an effective territorialization of public policies.
-Encourage urban planning policies and interterritorial integration between rural and urban areas to reduce development disparities and ensure equitable distribution of basic social services.