Sweddknowlege plateforme 20 août, 2026

Draft de Policy synthèse des résultats NTA de la Gambie

Introduction :
The Gambia, a small, densely populated country in West Africa with a population of 2.4 million, is experiencing rapid population growth (2.9% per year) and increasing urbanization (53% in urban areas). This dynamic puts pressure on public services. The population is very young, with 64% under the age of 25, and is predominantly female (52.8%).
Human capital in The Gambia focuses mainly on education and health. In education, only 56 per cent of children in rural areas reach primary school, compared to 35.6 per cent in urban areas. The gross enrolment ratio (GER) for primary education is 88.1 per cent, but decreases to 38.4 per cent for upper secondary education and 4.0 per cent for tertiary education. The net enrolment rate (NER) is 60.6 per cent for primary education, with disparities between urban (65.4 per cent) and rural (55.8 per cent) areas.
The Gambia, classified as a low-income country with a Gross National Income (GNI) of USD 750, has a low Human Development Index (HDI), ranking 174th out of 191 countries in 2021. The economy, which is heavily dependent on agriculture and tourism, has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, limiting the economic recovery despite GDP growth rates of 4.3% and 4.5% in 2021 and 2022.
The country has a young population, with 44% of the population under the age of 15. The fertility rate remains high, at 4.4 children per woman in 2019/20, but slightly lower than in previous decades. Despite a reduction in child mortality, The Gambia remains in a phase of demographic transition, with a rapidly growing population for decades to come.
The NTAs provide an ideal framework for analysing the links between demographic changes and economic development. They measure economic flows between members of different age groups over a period of time, thus integrating the age dimension into the national accounts. This approach aims to understand how financial resources are distributed and accumulated at different ages, both individually and collectively, by identifying sources of income and how money is used for consumption or saving. NTAs are essential for studying the economic implications of changes in the age structure of the population.
Results and Analysis
This part describes the results and analysis of the consumption profile and labour income profiles.
Analysis of total consumption profile, Per capita

Figure 1: Total Consumption, Per Capita Values

Source: Gambia’s Team/CREG, 2023
Private consumption varies with age. It is noted that the level of consumption in the private sector has been increasing continuously since the age of 0 years, with a consumption of about 14 GMD, reaching a peak around the age of 30 with a consumption of about 43 GMD. It then experienced a significant gradual decline to about 35 GMDs between the ages of 32 and 55. However, it rises to nearly 40 GMDs at the age of 63 before showing a slight steady decrease. Nevertheless, consumption after the age of 70 remains relatively stable, remaining at least 28 GMD for the rest of life (90 years and older). This suggests that private consumption expenditure is highest during the working years (around 31 to 64 years), lower for children and the elderly, and decreases in older age. Overall, the level of private sector consumption remains relatively high throughout the life cycle in The Gambia.
In contrast to private consumption, public consumption remains relatively constant across different age groups with little variation by age, especially between 7 and 15 years of age, where consumption is slightly higher than in other age groups. Comparing private and public consumption, the graphs show that in The Gambia, private consumption is consistently much higher than public consumption, both in terms of per capita and overall values. This indicates that individuals and households in The Gambia rely more on their own spending rather than on public services and supports. While the profile of public consumption suggests that public spending is distributed equitably across the entire population. Public services and supports are not significantly affected by age, ensuring a more equitable benefit for the population. . Data indicate that private consumption in The Gambia is significantly higher than public consumption. While private consumption varies by age, peaking during working years and decreasing in old age, public consumption remains relatively constant, ensuring a more equitable distribution of resources
Income from work
Labour income is defined by the International Labour Organization (ILO) as the amount that employed people earn by working. Therefore, labour income includes the wages of employees and a portion of the income of the self-employed.
Profile of labour income per capita
The chart below shows labour income and per capita values, showing the relationships between the incomes of employees and those of the self-employed. According to the figure, self-employment income starts at the age of 6 in The Gambia and increases gradually, but at a slower pace, until the age of 11. From age 11 to age 34, the progression becomes rapid, peaking at age 34, meaning that at this age, self-employment income becomes more important.
Figure 2: Earnings and Self-employment income, Per capita values

Subsequently, at the age of 35, self-employment income declines somewhat, which could be attributed to limited access to credit in The Gambia, making it difficult to invest in businesses and, consequently, the low long-term profitability of businesses. However, between the ages of 35 and 49, self-employment income increases in The Gambia. Between the ages of 50 and 55, a decline is observed, followed by a recovery until the age of 63. At this age, individuals tend to invest their income in projects aimed at ensuring long-term savings and consumption for themselves and their households. Starting at age 64, the trend in self-employment income becomes fluctuating, which could be explained by the fact that some use their pension to invest, while others use it for various purposes.
In addition, Figure 3 above illustrates that self-employed people in The Gambia receive more income than those employed in the formal sector. Self-employed people can be understood as those who are engaged in their own business. However, most of these companies are startups, consisting mainly of MSMEs such as skills works and other tech-related businesses. Self-employment earnings peak between the ages of 25 and 32, showing that self-employed individuals tend to generate more income during this period of their life cycle. As these young entrepreneurs age, their incomes decline, indicating that they are struggling to sustain themselves financially as they age. Moreover, it may also be related to the effects of COVID-19, as seniors have found it more difficult to maintain a high level of income compared to youth aged 25 to 32 during the COVID period. This younger population is more likely to have better computer literacy and ICT skills than older people. The higher earnings of this age group (25-32 years old) in 2020 could be related to the types of jobs that were thriving at the time. It was very difficult to do business during COVID-19 due to restrictions such as social distancing, telecommuting, closing schools and other public places. Most people who succeed in business are those with ICT skills, mainly young people.
Average life cycle
Figure 3: Consumption and Labour Income Per Capita Values

Life Cycle Deficit
The life cycle deficit (LCD) measures the difference between labour income and consumer expenditure at each age. The life-cycle deficit indicates a surplus when labour income is higher than consumer expenditure and a deficit when labour income is lower than consumer expenditure.
Average Life Cycle Deficit
Figure 3 illustrates average consumer expenditure and life-cycle labour income in The Gambia in 2020. Average consumption was at its peak at age 30, with an average expenditure of GMD 44,324, then began to decrease slightly before taking an upward trend from age 56, with an average expenditure of GMD 39,208, and began to decrease again from age 63, with an average expenditure of GMD 42,507. This scenario shows that consumption behaviour in The Gambia decreases with population ageing over the economic life cycle and can be largely associated with the high level of dependency from the young population of The Gambia, or a low standard of living among the elderly.
The average labor income curve shows a marked growth from 15 years with an average income of GMD 2,255, reaching 34 years with an average income of GMD 50,035, then a slight decrease until age 43 with an average income of GMD 48,375, and reaching its peak at age 49, with a corresponding average income of GMD 52,180, before starting to decline as the older generation ages.
Aggregate life cycle deficit
Figure 4 illustrates the aggregate life cycle deficit for the case of The Gambia in 2020. The graph suggests that the aggregate life cycle deficit in 2020 is equal to GMD 37,546.5, and the result indicates that the life cycle deficit of young people is higher compared to that of older people. This suggests that The Gambia's young population has a high social demand that is not in line with labour incomes, and the aggregate surplus of GMD 4,758.2 is not sufficient to compensate for the deficit of the youth and the elderly.
In addition, average consumption and labour income indicate that the ages (0-30) and (57 and over) are the most economically dependent populations, as their level of consumption exceeds their labour income. This shows that individuals in these two age groups consume more than they earn. In addition, the age group (31-56) generates an economic surplus since their average labour income is higher than their consumption expenditures.
Figure 4 : Consumption and Labour Income, Aggregate Values

Aggregate life cycle deficit by sex
Figure 5 below represents the gender-aggregated life cycle deficit in The Gambia in 2020. The analysis indicates that men's labour income covers consumption from 25 to 60 years of age, and that men achieved an aggregate surplus of 5,138 million GMD.
In contrast, women's labour income covers consumption between the ages of 32 and 40 with a surplus of only GMD 562 million. The graph shows that women in The Gambia remain dependent throughout the life cycle, except between the ages of 32 and 40. However, women's consumption still exceeds their income profile. The graph shows that the life cycle deficit of women in 2020 was higher than that of men aged 7 to 32 and 60 to 68. This is due to the fact that women have higher social needs than men in The Gambia.
Figure 5: Aggregate Life Cycle Deficit by Sex
A graph of life cycle deficit

Description automatically generated
Source: CREG and NPCS
Aggregate lCD by area of residence
Figure 6.3 represents the life cycle deficit by area of residence in The Gambia in 2020. The graph shows that the labour income of urban residents is higher relative to their aggregate consumption from 32 to 58 years old, with an aggregate surplus for urban residents amounting to 3,710 million GMD in The Gambia. In contrast, rural residents experienced a surplus of 1,294 million GMD throughout their 27-52 life cycle in 2020. However, their surplus was smaller than that of urban areas of 2,417 million GMD.
Figure 6 : Aggregate Life Cycle Deficit by Residence

Life Cycle Deficit by Local Government Area
Table 1 below shows the lifecycle deficit by local government area. Since consumption exceeds labor income in all Local Government Areas (LGAs), no surplus was recorded. In addition, there are large disparities between regions, with Kanifing and Brikama recording the highest deficits of 27% and 24%, respectively. In contrast, Banjul, Mansakonko, and Kuntaur have the lowest deficits of 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
Table 1: Life Cycle Deficit by LGA (amount in millions of Dalasi)

Consumption
Labor Income
LCD

Value
%
Value
%
Value
%
Banjul
2,369
3%
500
1%
1,869
5%
Kanifing
23,966
29%
13,699
30%
10,268
27%
Brikama
26,979
32%
18,004
40%
8,975
24%
Mansakonko
3,295
4%
1,279
3%
2,016
5%
Kerewan
7,963
10%
4,808
11%
3,155
8%
Kuntaur
2,790
3%
1,233
3%
1,557
4%
Janjangbureh
4,020
5%
1,789
4%
2,231
6%
Basse
11,691
14%
4,215
9%
7,476
20%
The GAMBIA
83,073
100%
45,526
100%
37,547
100%
ECONOMIC SUPPORT RATIO
The Economic Support Ratio (ESR) is an indicator used to assess how the age distribution of a population impacts its ability to contribute to current economic output. The ESR is also an indicator that combines the economic life cycle and the age structure of the population. Similarly, the ratio can provide insights into the macroeconomic effects of demographic changes in terms of economic growth and well-being, as well as the challenges that the population may face in the future. A variety of factors, including behaviours, institutions, and cultural norms, influence age-related productivity and consumption patterns.
Figure 7: Economic support ratio of the Gambia, 1950-2050

Source: CREG 2023 based on GBoS data
Figure 8 below shows the evolution of the first demographic dividend in The Gambia for the period 1950 to 2050. The trend reveals an increase in the economic support ratio (ESR) during colonization until the independence of The Gambia in 1965, with the number of actual workers exceeding the number of actual consumers. After independence, The Gambia experienced unfavorable economic growth from 1970 to 1999, with the number of actual consumers exceeding the number of actual producers. However, the trend was reversed in 2000, with The Gambia recording steady growth in its higher education and research in 2000, with the higher education and research in 2000 being 43 per cent, meaning 43 effective producers per 100 actual consumers. This shows a steady increase in the number of actual workers relative to actual consumers, or that the size of the workforce was larger than the dependent population during this period. The window of opportunity for the Gambia's demographic dividend opened in 2000, as in Senegal (Dramani and Njie, 2012), and is manifested in a positive change in the support ratio.
Figure 8: The Gambia’s 1st demographic dividend, 1950-2050

Source: CREG 2023 based on GBoS data
Conclusion and recommendation
The NTAs shed light on the specific sources of income for each age group and reveal how this income is used, whether for immediate consumption or for saving for future spending. By identifying these flows, the NTAs make it possible to understand the mechanisms by which different generations mutually support their economic well-being, particularly through public and private transfers.
This approach is particularly valuable for studying the economic implications of changes in the age structure of the population, such as ageing or labour force growth. Indeed, the NTAs provide crucial information for the development of appropriate public policies, aimed at maximizing the demographic dividend or managing the challenges associated with an aging population.
Based on the results, the following recommendations are made:
-Introduce tax incentives to encourage long-term savings and investment, especially for young people, to strengthen their future financial security and support sustainable economic growth.
-Expand access to family planning and reproductive health services to manage population growth and improve maternal and child health, thereby contributing to a healthier and economically active population.
-Develop specific programs for the economic empowerment of young people and women, in particular through microfinance, entrepreneurship, and training initiatives, to reduce their economic dependence and promote their integration into the labor market.