Draft de Policy brief « Ouverture de la fenêtre du DD de la Gambie » (1)

Draft
policy
brief
« 
Opening
the
Gambia's

D
D
window
 »
Background and justification
African
Heads of State and
governments

recognizing

Africa’s
unique
opportunity
for
accelerated

economic

growth

presented
by
its’s

youthful
population
adopted
a
common
position on DD at the
African
Union
summit
in
January
2014 in Addis
Ababa
,
Ethiopia
. This
was

followed
by the meeting of the high-
level

committee
of Heads of State
held
in N'Djamena, Chad on 28
February
2014, the
African
Union
Resolution
, and the
subsequent

Africa
Agenda 2063.
Consequently
,
African
Heads of State and
Governments

declared
the
year
2017 as the
year
for
harnessing
the
Demographic

Dividend
.
Reaping
the
demographic

dividend

becomes
possible as
fertility

declines
and the proportion of a
country’s

working-age
population (15 to 64)
grows

faster

than
the
elderly
and the
very

young

dependent
populations (14 and
younger
, and 65 and
older
),
resulting
in a
low

dependency
ratio and
opening
up a
window
of
opportunity
for
accelerated

economic

growth
.
The
Gambia
as part of
its
new
Recovery

Focused
National
Development
Plan (RF-NDP 2023-2027)
is

taking

steps
to
domesticate
the AU-roadmap on
reaping
the
demographic

dividend
and the
implementation
of
its

pillars
. Work
is

also
in place to put up an
observatory
for the
demographic

dividend
. To
achieve

this
, the
Gambia

through

its
National Population Commission
Secretariat

will

formulate
and
implement
the National Population Policy 2023-2050 for
reaping
the
demographic

dividend
and
develop
five-
year
action plans for the
implementation
of the
policy
.
Results
Economic
Support Ratio
is
a
metric

used
to
assess
how the age distribution of a population impacts
its

ability
to
contribute
to the
current

economic
production. The ESR
is

also
an
indicator

that
combines the
economic
life cycle and the age structure of the population.
In
Gambia
,
he

has been
increasing

from
1950 to 1969,
reaching

its

peak

in
1970,
with
an
economic
Support Ratio of 50%. The
Economic
Support Ratio
started

declining

in
1971 and
continued

until
1992,
with
the country
registering
a Support Ratio of 43%. There
was
a
slight

increase
in the Support Ratio
between
1993 to 1994,
after

which

it

continued
to
decline
up to the
year
2000,
when
the
country’s

window
of
opportunity
for the first
Demographic

Dividend

opened
. This
is

manifested
by a positive
change in the
economic
support ratio
indicating

that
the
number
of effective
workers
has
outnumbered
the
number
of effective
consumers
Graph 1 :
Economic
Support Ratio, The
Gambia
1950-2050
Source: CREG 2023 based on GBoS data
The
Gambia’s

window
of
opportunity
for the
demographic

dividend

opened

in
2000

and
it

is

depicted
by a positive change in the support ratio.
Graph 2 :

The
Gambia’s
1st
demographic

dividend
, 1950-2050
Source

: CREG 2023
based
on
GBoS
data
Projection of the
demographic

dividend

according
to
fertility
scenarios
The
projected
DD in the high
fertility
scenario
experienced
a
slight

increase

from
2016 to 2038,
reaching

its

highest
point of 0.57%
in
2038,
after

which

it

began
to
decline

from
0.56%
in
2039 to 0.49%
in
2050. In the scenario
with
medium
fertility
, the
demographic

dividend

increases

from
2016 to 2038,
reaching

its

peak
at 0.78%
in
2038
while

from
2039
it

began
to
decline

from
0.76% to 0.58%
in
2050.
Conversely
, in the
low

fertility
scenario, the
demographic

dividend
shows the
highest

increase
,
reaching
a maximum of 1.00%
in
2037,
surpassing
all
other
scenarios.
Graph 3 :

Projection of the
Demographic

Dividend

according
to
Fertility
Scenarios
Source

: CREG 2023
based
on
GBoS
data
KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
Pour
faciliter l’ouverture de la fenêtre du DD, des mesures pérennes doivent être entreprises :
Support
ing
agricultural
development
and
favourable

trade

agreements
can boost the
economic
support ratios
 ;
Maintaining

political

stability
and a positive international
reputation

is
crucial for
attracting

foreign

aid
and
investment
 ;
Promoting investment in education, health, strengthening the private sector, skills development, anti-poverty strategies and good governance, as well as policies to
promote employment, particularly for women, which will lead to increased participation in the labour
market
;
–
Investing
in road,
energy
and
telecommunications
infrastructure