Sweddknowlege plateforme 20 août, 2026

Draft de Policy brief « Ouverture de la fenêtre du DD de la Gambie » (1)

Draft policy brief « Opening the Gambia's DD window »

1. Background and justification
African Heads of State and governments recognizing Africa’s unique opportunity for accelerated economic growth presented by its’s youthful population adopted a common position on DD at the African Union summit in January 2014 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This was followed by the meeting of the high-level committee of Heads of State held in N'Djamena, Chad on 28 February 2014, the African Union Resolution, and the subsequent Africa Agenda 2063. Consequently, African Heads of State and Governments declared the year 2017 as the year for harnessing the Demographic Dividend. Reaping the demographic dividend becomes possible as fertility declines and the proportion of a country’s working-age population (15 to 64) grows faster than the elderly and the very young dependent populations (14 and younger, and 65 and older), resulting in a low dependency ratio and opening up a window of opportunity for accelerated economic growth.
The Gambia as part of its new Recovery Focused National Development Plan (RF-NDP 2023-2027) is taking steps to domesticate the AU-roadmap on reaping the demographic dividend and the implementation of its pillars. Work is also in place to put up an observatory for the demographic dividend. To achieve this, the Gambia through its National Population Commission Secretariat will formulate and implement the National Population Policy 2023-2050 for reaping the demographic dividend and develop five-year action plans for the implementation of the policy.
2. Results
* Economic Support Ratio is a metric used to assess how the age distribution of a population impacts its ability to contribute to the current economic production. The ESR is also an indicator that combines the economic life cycle and the age structure of the population. In Gambia, he has been increasing from 1950 to 1969, reaching its peak in 1970, with an economic Support Ratio of 50%. The Economic Support Ratio started declining in 1971 and continued until 1992, with the country registering a Support Ratio of 43%. There was a slight increase in the Support Ratio between 1993 to 1994, after which it continued to decline up to the year 2000, when the country’s window of opportunity for the first Demographic Dividend opened. This is manifested by a positive change in the economic support ratio indicating that the number of effective workers has outnumbered the number of effective consumers
Graph 1 : Economic Support Ratio, The Gambia 1950-2050

Source: CREG 2023 based on GBoS data
* The Gambia’s window of opportunity for the demographic dividend opened in 2000 and it is depicted by a positive change in the support ratio.
Graph 2 : The Gambia’s 1st demographic dividend, 1950-2050

Source : CREG 2023 based on GBoS data
* Projection of the demographic dividend according to fertility scenarios
The projected DD in the high fertility scenario experienced a slight increase from 2016 to 2038, reaching its highest point of 0.57% in 2038, after which it began to decline from 0.56% in 2039 to 0.49% in 2050. In the scenario with medium fertility, the demographic dividend increases from 2016 to 2038, reaching its peak at 0.78% in 2038 while from 2039 it began to decline from 0.76% to 0.58% in 2050. Conversely, in the low fertility scenario, the demographic dividend shows the highest increase, reaching a maximum of 1.00% in 2037, surpassing all other scenarios.
Graph 3 : Projection of the Demographic Dividend according to Fertility Scenarios

Source : CREG 2023 based on GBoS data
KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
Pour faciliter l’ouverture de la fenêtre du DD, des mesures pérennes doivent être entreprises :
* Supporting agricultural development and favourable trade agreements can boost the economic support ratios ;
* Maintaining political stability and a positive international reputation is crucial for attracting foreign aid and investment ;
* Promoting investment in education, health, strengthening the private sector, skills development, anti-poverty strategies and good governance, as well as policies to promote employment, particularly for women, which will lead to increased participation in the labour market;
– Investing in road, energy and telecommunications infrastructure